Research
The signature theme of our research is human and social capital in the urban context. The PRC’s urban emphasis is rooted in the emerging significance of global trends in urbanization, the ongoing and pressing concerns regarding urban populations in the U.S. and the long-standing interest in urban questions among our faculty. With this focus, the tools of demography and theoretical precepts of human and social capital can be brought to urban studies. The urban context is defined broadly by the processes that are relevant to metropolitan areas, as well as questions that bear on issues related to central- or inner-city areas, such as the causes and consequences of poverty, racial and ethnic segregation, housing and school quality, family and union formation patterns, and health disparities. The location of the PRC in Chicago has led to much research taking advantage of the fruitful urban context the Center is located in.
Within the focus on human and social capital in the urban context, the three central sub-themes of the research activities of the Population Research Center are: (1) Children, Families, and Marriage, (2) Health, and (3) Poverty and Inequality. Each theme expresses several hallmarks of our program: its multidisciplinary nature, its dual emphasis on theory and evidence and on concepts and measurement, and its attention to social policies that are demographic in nature. The three are neither wholly distinct from one another nor exhaustive in capturing the interests and contributions of our Center's research associates. PRC scholar's research is also focused on developing new and novel uses for methods and tools in demographic research.
Children, Families and Marriage
No subject better exemplifies the importance of demographic research than the factors affecting the fertility of a nation and its investments in children. Children are nurtured in families and they are affected by the forces that influence the size, structure and social arrangements within families and households. Understanding the changes in those structures and how they influence children are key topics in demographic research. These social institutions also affect adults in many ways. We need to better understand the incentives to form and sustain family structures, and how and why the functions of families change. Marriage, as a distinct social institution, has for years been a focus of study by several PRC research associates, who analyze its functions, assess its limits, compare its attributes to cohabitational unions, and study its stability and its value to spouses, children, and society.
We identify three categories within the research focus of Children, Families, and Marriage on which to focus: (1) Fertility, (2) Investments in Children Across the Life Course, and (3) Marriage, Family Structure and the Family.
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Fertility
Research on fertility patterns has taken numerous forms. Regarding fertility patterns, ongoing projects are global in focus, looking at issues of the demographic transition as they play out today in developing countries, and reconsidering the Malthusian model of global growth in population and real incomes. Other researchers are studying fertility patterns and their relationship to economic growth, motivated by the observation that negligible changes in population size and economic well-being over many centuries have been followed by extraordinary growth in both over the past two hundred years. The circumstances of agricultural societies with low population density and low rates of economic growth have given way to the highly dense urban communities characterized by economies of scale in research and development, specialization and investments in human capital. The relationship between economic growth and population size is considered by Gary Becker and Kevin Murphy. Becker and Murphy investigate situations in which high population urban areas yield higher investments in human and social capital, forcing us to reconsider traditional assumptions about the relationship between population-size and investments in human capital. Demographic studies by Donald Bogue regarding the high Hispanic fertility rate in the United States and by Daniel Bennett on the effect of abstinence education on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa elaborate the interest and focus of PRC research on fertility.
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Investments in Children Across the Life Course
PRC researchers are currently conducting numerous research projects that investigate expenditures on children, the stages of growth best suited for efficient investments in their human capital, of family influences on their development and life transitions, of the social and structural resources that bear on their well-being, and a host of related topics of considerable intellectual and policy import. Current research such as Ariel Kalil’s investigation of adolescent development among cohabitating couples and Amy Claessen’s work on the role of out of home contexts on child development, address child and adolescent well-being and development. James Heckman’s influential research on the effectiveness of skill investments at various life stages illustrates the decreased efficacy of such programs with increased age. Other researchers, including Robert Michael, Casey Mulligan, and Robert Fogel, continue to investigate why different parents invest differently in their children and the outcomes of these varied investments.
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Marriage, Family Structures and the Family
Research on marriage, family and family structure approaches it from a variety of perspectives, including interrogating the effects of these institutions on health, economies, and the labor market. Among our senior research associates, Linda Waite has focused much of her recent research on the case for marriage as a positive social institution, examining the health benefits of marriage. Waite’s work with Barbara Schneider investigates the manner in which families prepare children for their future careers. Robert Townsend's Thailand survey project, ‘the Townsend Thai Project’, investigates the role of the social institution of the family, including the extended family, in offering insurance and credit to its members. The study, primarily focused on the risks that households encounter, places these functions in a context of a village and a community that also enjoys more formal financial institutions. Jung Hwa-Ha’s work looks at the manner in which adult health affects relationships and the manner in which, in the context of marriage, care-giving mediates these effects. Kerwin Charles and Erik Hurst investigate the manner in which marital sorting occurs according to parental wealth and how wealth correlates across generations.
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Health
The theoretical model that guides our research on health considers the demographic determinants and implications of health outcomes and behaviors. This model is used in the varied research that is bound together within or influenced by Chicago’s urban center. Associations with the University of Chicago Medical Center – primarily serving a low income, urban community – direct our research to address and develop effective health care at the community level. This commitment is realized in the Urban Health Initiative which connects the University of Chicago Medical Center with community organizations and healthcare providers to research, educate and provide health care.
Within the last twenty years, major developments have solidified the clear connection between the social sciences and medicine in urban health studies. One was the creation of the Harris School of Public Policy Studies with its focus on health policy; the other was the creation of the Department of Health Studies within the Pritzker School of Medicine/Biological Sciences. Each houses several social scientists conducting research on health at the interface between the physician and the family. The creation of the Center for Health and the Social Sciences (CHeSS) in the Biological Sciences Division has cultivated another connection. CHeSS is currently developing a program that addresses community-based research and health disparities. This program will clearly connect the urban research of the PRC to CHeSS’s work on health studies.
Within the health research conducted at the PRC, there are three predominant research fields: (1) Health Promotion Across the Life Course, (2) Sexual Health, and (3) Chronic and Infectious Disease.
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Health Promotion Across the Life Course
Among the most researched topics at the PRC is health promotion across the life course. PRC Director Kate Cagney’s research examines the manner in which neighborhood social and structural forces affect health outcomes. Cagney also researches the link between childbearing time and later life health events. Colm O’Muircheartaigh’s work engages the connection between income and health outcomes. Robert Fogel has developed the concept of “physiological capital”, primarily to study changes in infant death rates. With this model, he is interrogating the connection between the development of physiological capital and improvements in the environment, medical technology, and the development of effective systems for delivering health services. Emily Oster also researches changes in populations, but attempts to explain the gender imbalance in Southeast Asia by looking at both naturally occurring sex differences and differences in investment between the sexes. Closer to home, Stacy Lindau’s Southside Health and Vitality Study addresses strategies for encouraging and maintaining good health on the Southside of Chicago.
PRC scholars also look at issues such as obesity, disease prevention and the evolution of medical practice. Marshall Chin is among many researchers studying health promoting techniques. Dr. Chin’s research focuses on diabetes and the differences in care and social support between African-American and white populations. John Cacioppo’s work addresses the effects of loneliness on depression. Willard Manning’s work looks at the cost-effectiveness of medical treatment, working through a developed econometric perspective. David Meltzer is currently researching the development of hospitalists, due to physician travel costs. Supported by a Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Investigator’s award, Meltzer’s work on hospitalists is influenced by Robert Fogel’s research on railroads.
Other research occurring through the PRC on health promotion confronts issues that lay at the intersection of health and public policy. In addition to previously identified research, Manning investigates the effectiveness of curbing alcohol consumption through higher taxation. Heather Hill looks at the connection between parental employment, health care and child health outcomes. Harold Pollack has extensively published on welfare recipients and drug use, as well as the HIV prevention among I.V. drug users.
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Sexual Health
A wide range of junior and senior scholars associated with the PRC research issues of sexual health. The National Social Life, Health and Aging Project (NSHAP) examines sexual health and social factors in aging. Linda Waite, Kate Cagney, Edward Laumann, Martha McClintock and Colm O’Muircheartaigh are all investigators with NSHAP. This collaboration has led to 31 articles and a special issue in the Journals of Gerontology: Social Sciences. Wave 1 of the NSHAP project, which included Stacy Lindau among the investigators, examined how sexual behavior is affected by illness. While sexual dysfunction has been well researched, PRC scholars have invested much effort in investigating the positive effects of sexuality. The NSHAP study focuses particular attention on the positive effects of intimacy on health among aging adults.
The NICHD-supported “Chicago Health and Social Life Survey” undertaken in 1995 by Laumann and his students provided some of the fundamental underpinnings for NSHAP and resulted in a 2004 book that includes investigations of the behaviors and social structures that influence transmission of HIV in Chicago. Robert Michael’s work on the sexual behaviors of adolescents employed the Department of Labor’s NLSY97 data. McClintock has investigated the manner in which women’s sexual experience varies with the menstrual cycle.
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Chronic and Infectious Disease
The connection between medical health and social science research is clearly illustrated by the studies that comprise the PRC’s chronic and infectious disease health subtheme. Laumann and McClintock employ NSHAP data to investigate the risk of cardiovascular illness. McClintock is also involved in a study that investigates social and environmental factors that may be responsible for mammary tumors. Diane Lauderdale’s research investigates the factors that may have been responsible for the spread of MRSA. In a global context, Hoyt Bleakley researches the economic impacts of childhood malaria.
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Poverty and Inequality
As the PRC has cultivated a stronger multi-disciplinary focus and more extensive relationships with policy school faculty, the focus on social welfare policy, sociology of education, measurement of cognitive achievement of children and the dynamics of the work-and-family or career-and-parenting behaviors have come to play an increasingly important role in the Center’s research. These topics broadened the research scope of the PRC, which had been traditionally focused on economic research on employment.
Within poverty and inequality research, we have identified three major research subfields: (1) Employment and Youth Transitions to the Marketplace, (2) Education and Skill Investments, and (3) Neighborhood Context and Mobility.
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Employment and Youth Transitions to the Marketplace
The transition from youth to adulthood and the associated transition into the labor market are major transitions in the life course and a focus of much of the poverty and inequality research conducted through the PRC. Using NLSY97 data that is rich in information regarding schooling and youth employment, former PRC director and NLSY97 Principal Investigator Robert Michael edited Social Awakening: Adolescent Behavior as Adulthood Approaches. The volume brought together the research of many PRC scholars. Using data from NLSY79, Derek Neal looks at youth job mobility, suggesting that there are two stages in job mobility. In the first stage, individuals work to gain skill sets and to perfect their job performance. In the second stage, individuals focus on finding the right firm. Neal’s other research on employment, looks at the inflation of reported hours in Census and American Community Survey data, favoring an interview-based approach. Susan Mayer’s research investigates the effects that inequality has on children’s well-being, education, aspirations and available training to enter well-paid positions in the job market.
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Education and Skill Investments
The traditions of sociology of education and public policy approaches to education research are strong at the PRC and associated scholars continue to exhibit great interest in and perform innovative research on the topic. Derek Neal organized a conference through the Milton Friedman Institute entitled “Economic Analysis and Education Policy,” exploring the contributions which economists can lend to education research beyond the traditional role of refining statistical methodologies. Confronting issues of education and health, Neal and Kerwin Charles run the Chicago Workshop on Black-White Inequality. Charles and Dan Black, Principal Investigator on the NLSY97, examine the difference in male and female test scores. Charles and Erik Hurst examine the role that race plays in opportunity. While, Hurst and Jonathan Guryan look at the connection between parental education and the time parents spend with children.
Stephen Raudenbush’s work with the Urban Education Initiative has left its mark on the Chicago Public Schools. Ofer Malamud examines the effects of early or late occupational specialization in English and Scottish schools. In a similar vein of study, James Heckman researches the effectiveness of job training programs for students. Jeffrey Grogger looks at the effects of various aspects of education on post-school income, including how individual expenditures on students are reflected in later earnings. Robert Lalonde’s research examines the retraining of displaced. Barbara Schneider’s research yields a wealth of varied data regarding education. This research is conducted through Advancing Research and Communication in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics, an NORC academic research center of which Schneider is the Principal Investigator. In a global context, Alicia Menendez and Susan Mayer have developed a computer learning based program to increase educational quality in the developing world which is currently being enacted and assessed in Brazil.
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Neighborhood Context and Mobility
The urban location of the University of Chicago, as well as its relationship with state and government researchers create many opportunities for the PRC to be involved in research which serves local urban populations at the neighborhood level. A clear example of this research is Jens Ludwig’s work with the University of Chicago Crime Lab. The Crime Lab’s partnership with Chicago Public Schools and various non-profits evaluates programs and policies and attempts to improve education and other programs that serve disadvantaged youth.
Urban sociology attempts to rethink the basis of neighborhood-based research. Mario Small’s recent book, Unanticipated Gains: Origins of Network Inequality in Everyday Life, argues that researchers should pay more attention to local organizations. Small also pursues research focused on the day-to-day organizations of neighborhoods with varying levels of poverty. Small has also conducted research with Stephen Raudenbush and Micere Keels. The research team received a Macarthur Foundation grant to research the effects of social mobility on Chicago students’ social networks and performance. This investigation suggests that the importance of social mobility has less of an effect on social networks than violence. Scott Allard’s most recent book, Out of Reach: Place, Poverty and the American Welfare State, investigates the availability of social services in low income and higher income areas. The research exposes that the social services that provide basic material needs are less available in low-income areas where they are more needed. Donald Bogue’s most recent book explores mobility’s effects on the ethnic turnover of neighborhoods and social class clustering in urban areas.
A great deal of research has interrogated anti-discrimination and welfare policies. Jonathan Guryan has researched the effects of the 1954 Supreme Court decision that mandated desegregation. Guryan’s research explores whether this decision had the anticipated effects on black students. James Heckman’s research examines social welfare programs and black-white earning differentials. Black-white earning differentials have also been examined by the research of Kevin Murphy and Derek Neal. A great deal of research is also directed towards examining welfare policies. Jeffrey Grogger has authored a text on the welfare reforms of 1996. Bruce Meyer looks at the effects of unemployment insurance and, in a separate study, the effects of welfare programs on working-mothers. Ariel Kalil’s research looks at parental employment and welfare transitions effects on children.
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Methods and Tools
The methods and tools developed by PRC scholars are a great asset to population research and the PRC’s focus on social and human capital in the urban context. These developments occur primarily in statistical methods, new data sets and the integration of both biological data and novel uses of GIS and spatial analysis in the social sciences.
From the beginning of the PRC’s history, PRC scholars have been developing new statistical methods. James Heckman, conducting analysis of censored data using survival analysis and other techniques, has made seminal contributions to the statistical tools available to demographers and statistical methodology, in general. Stephen Raudenbush, with co-author Tony Bryk, wrote the book on Hierarchical Linear Models and is at the forefront of methodological innovation related to nested structures. Many other PRC research Associates are continuing to contribute statistical tools and guidance in the uses of new techniques. Willard Manning, with co-author John Mullahy, examines how well alternative estimators behave in terms of bias and precision in log models designed to deal with skewed outcomes. Lars Hansen is a macroeconomist and econometrician who specializes in risk and valuation and in operator methods and acts as the founding Director of the Milton Friedman Institute for Research in Economics. Kazuo Yamaguchi describes a method of using multinomial logit latent-class regression models in sociological research, the categorical analogue of latent-variable regression for continuous latent variables like those used in LISREL. The models are, he points out, regression extensions of log-linear latent-class models with group variables. Damon Phillips brings his background in network theory and network analysis to the Center. A professor of Organizations and Strategy at the Booth School of Business his background in network theory and associated methods is in great demand among our students and faculty. Colm O’Muircheartaigh continues the development of novel sampling approaches and contributions to survey methodology. His expertise is critical to a number of large-scale on-going studies (e.g., PSID) and he has been active in methods related to the National Children’s Study.
The production of new data sets that address the concerns of the PRC’s major research focus, social and human capital in the urban context, is another place where PRC scholars are doing novel work. The production and analysis of new data that speaks to the three major research foci of the PRC engage the many disciplines brought together in the PRC, and speak to the goals of policy analysis and research of the PRC. The previously discussed ‘500 Family Study’ conducted by Barbara Schneider and Linda Waite has generated its own edited volume. Several sexual health studies by Edward Laumann and Robert Michael have created in depth national data sets and added sexual health components to other national data sets. The NSHAP Survey, crafted by Waite, Kate Cagney, Laumann, and O'Muircheartaigh, is in its second wave. O’Muircheartaigh, also NORC Vice President for the Statistics and Methodology Division, was a central actor in the design of the sample and the construction of the sampling weights for the NLSY97 data set and continues to play a key role in the sampling and field decisions on the study. Some very important data is generated not through the PRC’s efforts but through the collaborations and academic networks developed through the center. Cagney’s Neighborhood Organization, Aging, and Health Study was developed with the assistance of David Meltzer and Linda Waite.
The collaboration of NORC and the University of Chicago is in the collection of biological data in large-scale studies, particularly the collection of this biological data in the field. The work of John Cacioppo and Martha McClintock illustrates the relationship between social context and health through the inclusion of health data in social science studies. Including these bio-measures in social science surveys has the benefits of exposing existing medical conditions, illuminating the connections between social contexts and health conditions, and providing objective indicators to match up with self-reported data. Cacioppo researches the health factors that are affected by loneliness. McClintock’s contribution to the NSHAP project examines the connection between the estrogonization of vaginal cells, sexual health and overall health. Linda Waite directs the NSHAP Wave 2 project in which McClintock’s research is included and which is one of the first population studies that includes biological markers in studies of social life and health among older people. Jens Ludwig investigates how residential relocation affects disease risk. Kate Cagney also investigates the role that residential location plays in health, using data from the Dallas Heart Study.
A great deal of PRC scholar’s research has employed GIS and spatial analysis in novel ways. The use of GIS and spatial analysis is particularly suited to the PRC’s neighborhood-based studies of environmental factors of children, youth and family development, as well as the environmental determinants of health. GIS and other forms of spatial analysis are of use to illustrate the connection between location and any number of social or health factors. Cagney’s research on the connection between health and poverty, particularly her study of mortality during the 1995 Chicago heat wave, has employed GIS data. Similar uses of GIS technologies by PRC scholars include Allard’s research on the availability of social services in low-income locations, Small’s research on everyday neighborhood organizations and Raudenbush’s research on the connection of neighborhood location to health and well-being. Jens Ludwig’s research employs GIS to examine the connections of neighborhood factors to social outcomes. Studies of residential mobility, like Keels research on elderly Chicagoans, look at the effects of mobility on adult outcomes and gentrification on school outcomes. Melzter’s research uses GIS to interrogate the connection between neighborhood location and hospital readmission rates.